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The Prospect for China's Development During the Tenth Five-year Plan Period

2000-10-18author:Zheng Xinlisource:

  Distinguished Mr. Chairman, Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,

  Today, I feel very glad to be present in the Third Meeting of the Second Phase of China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED). he State Development and Planning Commission of China is the department of macro regulation under the leadership of the State Council and it assumes the important task of formulating the medium and long term planning for the state. Presently, we are engaged in research and working out the Tenth Five-year Plan for China. And now, I would like to brief you the implementation of the Ninth Five-year Plan and touch upon the prospect for the economic development during the Tenth Fiveyear Plan period.

  Ⅰ. the implementation of the Ninth Five-year Plan has brought about salient effects and fruits

  It was proposed in the Outline of the Ninth Five-year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long Term Target Into the Year of 2010 which was approved by the 4th Session of the 8th National People's Congress that during the period of Ninth Fiveyear Plan, i.e. between 1996 and 2000, China will finalize in an all around way the second strategic move of modern construction. By 2000, the population will be controlled within 1.3 billion and the per capita GDP will be doubled against that of the 1980: the poverty will be primarily eliminated and the people will enjoy a life of well being; speed up the construction of the modern enterprise system and set up the socialism market economy more or less and push ahead the two fundamental changes of economic institution and modes of economic increase which have a bearing for the whole situation and also carry out the two strategies of rejuvenating China through science and education and sustainable development and take the lashing of inflation as the first task for the macro regulation. In the last 4 years of implementing the Ninth Fiveyear Plan, salient effect and fruits have been brought about.

  —The targets of the second strategic move of modernization are near to be attained. Since the very beginning of the Ninth Fiveyear Plan period, China's national economy has been rapidly increased in a sustained manner and the population has been under effective control, and following the doubling of the GNP in 1995 against that of 1980, the per capita GNP has also doubled in 1997 against that of 1980. In the first 3 years of this period, the average of annual GNP increase is rated 8.7%, and if it is maintained at 6.9%, the target set for the Ninth Five-year period will be attained. Presently, 90% of the urban dwellers and around 80% residents have led a life of well being, and by 2000, the poverty in the rural area will be eradicated primarily and the national people will be leading a life of well being.

  —The socialism market economy institution will be set up more or less. During the Ninth Fiveyear period, the reform of the stateowned enterprises has been stepped up, and reforms in the field of governmental institutions, banking, financing, taxation, investment and fundenlisting, circulation of crops, housing and social security have been deepened. By the year of 2000, the socialism market economy institutional framework is expected to be set up more or less.

  —The fruits made in changing the mode of economic increase and carrying out the strategies of rejuvenating China through science and education and sustainable development. During the period of the Ninth Fiveyea Plan, in adapting to the change of domestic and foreign market demand, the industrial structure and product structure have made a certain progress, the coefficient of energy consumption has reduced sharply and the change of the economic increase is at the outset. The concept of rejuvenating China through science and education has been widely imprinted and accepted and the input in the science, technology and education has been increased annually and the development of education in various levels and field has been progressing and the place for China's integrated technology and science in the world rank has been moving ahead. The natural increase of population has been decreased within 0.1%, the treatment of environmental pollution has scored achievements at stages and ecological environmental construction has been expedited and the resource conservation and rational development and utilization has been further strengthened.

  —The major tasks of macro regulation have been primarily accomplished. In 1996 and 1997, the increase rate of the price of the retailed commodities has been decreased from 217% in 1994 to 61% and 08% respectively, the primary task of lashing the inflation has been accomplished. Since 1998, in order to withstand the affliction of the Asian financial crisis, the Chinese government has been carrying out the positive financial policies to increase the domestic demand, strengthen the infrastructure construction and has achieved the sustained rapid economic development and the exchange rate for RMB maintains stable.

  —Opening to the outside world is further wider. During the Ninth Five-year Plan period, the fields and scope in China opening to the outside world has been further widened. In 1998, the total volume of the export and import ranked 11 in the world. The domestic investment environment has been constantly improved and the amount of foreign direct investment has been consecutively ranking the 2nd place in the world. And the international status of balance is fine.

  —The major targets for the industrial development and economic construction have been primarily achieved. The product of crops has consecutively in the last 3 years registered around 1000 billion jin. In 1998, the length of road open o traffic was 1.28 million km and the percentage of telephone is 10.64 and the steel product scored 116 million tons and all the abovementioned exceeded the planned index for the Ninth Fiveyear period. On the circumstances of the purchaser market, the efforts for industrial structure readjustment will be further intensified.

  Ⅱ. China's economic and social development in the early of 21st century enters a new phase

  The 20th century is to be over very soon, and the dawn of the 21st century is beckoning. Looking into the next century, the impact of economic globalization is profound. The process of freedom of global trade, investment, and banking is to speed up and the regional economic integration is to be strengthened, the international trading structure and manner are under change.

  The information technology featuring the new technology revolution advances by leaps and bounds, network is stepping forward. The knowledge industry such as information, science and technology, education etc. will develop into the backbone and the technological innovation will be the main driving force for the economic increase and the international competition will be more in the way of competition of science and technology as well as talents.

  The merging and union allying of giant corporations worldwide characterized with mega and transnational form are rolling on with full force and the transnational corporations are playing a more and more important role as the leading force in the global industrial structure readjustment.

  In the next 5 and even 15 years, China will still be at the socialism primary stage and the modernization drive will be at the critical period to achieve the 3rd strategic move. The aggregate per capita GNP will be lifted from the level of low income to the low and medium level bordering the level of the low and middle developed countries. During this period, the adjustment in the economic and social structure will be further stepped up and the change in the economic institution and increasing modes will be sped up, which will feature as follows:

  —The industrial structure will be further optimally upgraded. From the point of view of the changing trend of China's demand structure, with the increase of the per capita income, the consumption demand will be all the more diversified and the requirements on the product quality and function will be saliently increased and to craving change and requirement of the consumption demand, the investment in the readjustment of the industrial structure, optimizing and upgrading. In the context of globalization, the comparison advantage enjoyed by China blesses us that we can either make full use of the opportunity of the industrial structure readjustment in the developed countries to accept the industry transfer from them, or by technological innovation, we can improve the conventional industrial technologies and market competitive armed with the advanced technologies and high technologies. We can also select some key fields if appropriate to pool the resource for research and development so as to occupy a seat in the world high technology market and lose not opportunity in push ahead of the social economic and information drive.

  —Commodity market and elements market have been improved. With the deepening of the reform, the socialism market economic institution will be evolving from the stage of primary establishment to the stage of being more or less improved and the commodity market will be mature and the service market will be further developed, the circulation of the production elements of labor, capital, technologies etc will be more active and various element market will be stepped up to be set up and improved; scientific research and education will be market oriented and the national uniform, complete orderly market system will be formed by degrees and the market mechanism will play a better fundamental role for the resource matching and supply.

  —The readjustment in the rural and urban structure will be sped up. The level of urbanization in China is lagged behind that of industrialization and this is another major reason for an array structural contradictions including the lagged development of the tertiary industry in the national economy, inadequacy in the market effective demand. The history of the economic development and urbanization in the other countries has demonstrated that the urbanization will be stepping up when the per capita GNP reaches a certain level. Once the institutional barriers restricting China's urbanization development are removed, and the favorable policy environment for the normal urbanization development be formed, China's urbanization will enter a new stage in the next 15 years, and the surplus labor in the rural area will move to the towns and cities and the adjustment in the rural and urban population structure will be expedited, and the cities and townships will develop rationally and the level of urbanization will be raised dramatically.

  —New opportunities is faced in carrying out the sustainable development strategy. In the process of achieving the targets of the 3rd strategic move, China will all the more attach importance carrying out the strategy of sustainable development. The consciousness and capability in integrated decisionmaking by the governments for coordinating the correlation of the economic and social development, population, resource and environment will be further raised. The salient enhancement of the overall national strength and the change in the economic system, and modes of economic increase will pave a material and technological basis for carrying out sustainable development as well providing assurance in terms of systems and development mechanism. Because of the active public participation and the expansion of the international exchanges, the enterprise of China's sustainable development will thus be further pushed ahead. During the Tenth Five-year Plan period, the economic and social development will enjoy more advantageous conditions, for example, the fairly strong material and technological basis, great domestic market potential, rich labor resource and high rate of deposits and the increasingly perfect system basis for the modernization drive brought about by the reform. More important, the road for constructing socialism with Chinese characteristics has been identified. Meanwhile, for the major constraint elements for the economic development, they can not be ignored:

  —inadequacy in the effective demand, the emergence of deflation and the sharp problem of employment

  —irrational industrial structure, low quality and poor effect

  —the discrepancy between the urban and rural areas and the enlarging gap in the income—the development of science and technology is relatively lagged behind sharp contradiction between population, resource and environment

  —still existing institutional contradiction and lack of dynamics in the enterprises

  Ⅲ. the guidelines and goals for China's social and economic development during the Tenth Five-year plan

  During the Tenth Fiveyear plan period, China will continue to carry out the se

  ries policies and guidelines which proves to be effective in practice.

  i. It will continue to push ahead the two transitions and tackle two subjects. It will push ahead the two fundamental changes of economic systems and economic increase which have bearing on the whole situation and tackle the two subjects, i.e. setting up a fairly comprehensive socialism market economic institution and maintaining the sustained, rapid and sound economic development.

  ii.It will take expanding the domestic demand and exploring the domestic market as the basic footing and long term strategic guidelines. It will increase the scale of investment in the fixed asset appropriately, speed up the reform of the housing system and set up and improve the social security system, lead the dwellers to consume as expected, and try best to increase the rural dwellers income and actively explore the rural market.

  iii. It will hold on to the policy of reform and opening in the long run. Based on the all around, multi level and wide ranging opening situation, it will further expand the opening to the outside world, heading towards the direction of establishing uniform, standard and efficient opening system

  iv. Further carry out the strategy of rejuvenating China through science and technology. It will advance the speed of science and technology development and give priority to development of education and increasing of economy by relying on the progress of science and technology and raise the labor quality, and promote the close integration of science and technology, education and economy.

  v. Further carry out the strategy of sustainable development. It will implement the three basic state policies of family planning, environmental protection and saving resource and strengthen the ecological construction and strive to achieve the coordinating development of economy, society, population, resource and environment

  vi. It is to conduct the strategic readjustment in the economic structure so as to promote the industrial structure optimally upgraded. Great efforts will be made to raise the enterprises' economic benefit and market competitiveness, readjustment in the line structure, product structure and enterprises' structure

  vii. Strategic regrouping will be made in the state owned enterprises. With a view to manage the state owned economy as a whole, it is to do a good job of the large scaled of them and free and activate the small scaled ones, to improve operational status of the stateowned enterprises and set up and improve the modern enterprises system

  viii. To develop the small townships is the great strategy for pushing ahead the national economic and social development. It will promote the development of the small enterprises, boost the economic growth, increase the employment and activate the rural market and further develop various cities at various levels

  ix. Put the problem of unbalanced regional development in a prominent place and get it solved. It is to have a good command of the two great points of views of pioneering the development of the coastal regions and stepping up the development of the inland areas, to carry out the strategic move of developing the western area so as to promote the coordinating development of the coastal and inland regions which will eventually bridge the regional gap

  In light of the spirits of the 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of

  China, the prospect for the early of 21st century is mapped as follows: in the first ten years, the GDP will be doubled against that of 2000 and the life of well being will be further improved and the fairly comprehensive socialism market economic system will be formed. In the second ten years, the national economy will be further developed and various institutions will be further improved. By the middle of the 21st century, people's life will be affluent and the modernization drive will be fulfilled and a rich and strong, democratic and civilized socialism country will be materialized.

  Dear distinguished guests,

  The Tenth Five-year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term targets into the Year of 2015 which is in process of formulation is a mid and long term planning while ushering the new century. Different from the past nine fiveyear plans, this one will be formulated and carried out in the context of the preliminarily established socialism market economic institution. As such, it is necessary to study and solve the issue of how to reflect the socialism market economy institution's intrinsic demand in terms of the contents, modality, and compilation method for the planning, i.e. market playing a fundamental role for the state macro regulation of the resource matching and supply; demonstrating positive stance China assumes in marching into the world and taking hold of and making full use of the favorable opportunity brought by the economic globalization, to actively participate in the international economic cooperation and competition. For this purpose, we should refer to the successful experiences from home and abroad to improve the social involvement in the process of the formulating this planning and make the process transparent so as to stimulate all the initiative from all the walks of life and listen widely to the opinions from every corner so as to pool the wisdom and make the process of formulating the planning the process of coordinating the interests of all stakeholders and the process of reaching consensus. At the same time, we also welcome the foreign friends who are concerned of China's future development to contribute your wisdom and give us your ideas and suggestions and also in this process it will help you further understand the past and future of China.Thank you

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